Editor's Note:

The world in 2024 is not peaceful. From great power competition to regional conflicts, to numerous global challenges, the global landscape seems to be changing every day. Will the confrontation between Russia and the West lead to a "Cold War 2.0" and the return of the "Iron Curtain" ? Is the temporary stabilization of China-US relations a true departure from the downward spiral trend, or just a short and fragile period of stability?

Recently, Global Times reporters Xie Wenting and Bai Yunyi (GT) interviewed Odd Arne Westad (Westad), Professor of History and Global Affairs at Yale University and a leading expert in Cold War history, to analyze the evolution of the international landscape from a historian's perspective. He believes that the "post-Cold War era" that has lasted for a generation is coming to an end, although it is still unclear what kind of new international order will replace it.

GT: As a historian, how do you view current relations between China and the US? Do you think the two big powers are experiencing temporary stability under the context of prolonged tensions? Or how would you describe the current state of the bilateral relations? Could it be compared to any other historical period?

Westad: When making comparisons with earlier periods, we have to be cautious and acknowledge that there is no complete match. I am very skeptical of comparing the current situation with the Cold War between the US and the Soviet Union, as there are significant differences between the two. The US and the Soviet Union were not part of the same global economic system, and the ideological differences were much greater between the two sides. Upon reviewing the book written by my colleague Paul Kennedy about the antagonism between Germany and Britain in the late 19th century and early 20th century, I found more similarities with the current situation.

Unfortunately, this historical conflict eventually led to conflict and war. While I am not suggesting that the current situation will necessarily end in the same way, structurally, it shares more traits with that period than with the Cold War. I think in many ways, it is true that enormous changes are taking place now, but they don't necessarily have to end in conflict.

In reality, China and the US have much more in common. The economies may function differently on some levels, but in most terms, the economies are not that different from each other. They are market-driven in both places, oriented by rules, technology, and advances in economic terms. The two countries also have much in common in how they understand the world. Both of them want stability as a precondition for their own economic development, but they don't really know how to go about achieving it, and suspicion between the two is increasing.

I think at the moment, it's clear that the US and China are going through a very difficult period in their relationship. But I can also see ways in which the relationship could be improved incrementally. It doesn't have to be a downward spiral, but both countries will have to recognize the risks of continued tensions between them and figure out ways to address them. While the US and China will likely always have areas where they won't see eye to eye, leading to rivalry between the two, it's important to prevent this rivalry from escalating into a dangerous spiral. This is a danger that we must consider.

It is very frightening to me that the US and China do not have any kind of arms control discussions between the two sides. It's not good because it leads to misunderstandings and a lack of communication on important issues.

GT: Under what circumstances do you think China and the US will enter a new period of more balanced stability?

Westad: To me, the key issues are the security issues. For example, the situation in the Taiwan Straits is important. I have proposed, while I have been here in Beijing, something I call the Shanghai Plus, which is based on the Shanghai Communiqué in 1972 and the additions for the Chinese statement that came on and so on.

So what Shanghai Plus would actually mean is that you understand that it could under no circumstance support Taiwan independence. I think some people in the US could be interested in this.

If you can deal with this and in some other issues in which China and the US play a positive role, it will help bilateral relations get to a relatively stable stage. For instance, if you look at the Ukraine crisis, it is a significant factor in the relationship between the US and China. It is necessary to achieve at least a temporary ceasefire in Ukraine. I believe China can play a significant role. I believe that, to a certain extent, the US and China actually have a common interest in seeing a reduction in the conflict.

While the US and China may not become awesome friends over the next generation, it is important for both countries to work together on security issues to prevent escalation, and it's also possible for both sides to work together.
GT: What's your stance on if there will be or if we are already in the new Cold War between Russia and the West?

Westad: One of the many reasons why war should be avoided is that the outcomes are always unpredictable. I think at the moment, the risk of a bigger war breaking out in Ukraine is quite limited.

I don't think the current situation has anything to do with the Cold War. It is a conflict between countries. Russia is no longer a global superpower as the Soviet Union. It has become more limited in terms of its global influence. Conomically, Russia is struggling, and it is unlikely to see significant improvement in the near future.

I spent quite a bit of time thinking about what kind of relationship Russia will have with the US once the war is over. I think that even if there is a ceasefire, the sanctions are likely to remain in place. For Russia, this means that it will not be able to get closer to Europe, even in a regional or economic sense.

GT: From a historical perspective, what do you think are the long-term changes to the international order brought about by the Russia-Ukraine conflict?

Westad: I think it is a defining conflict in many ways. The consequences of it will be long-lasting, and it marks the end of the post-Cold War era. That period has lasted a generation, but we don't quite know what's going to replace it.

One of the most significant structural changes is the increasing military and strategic integration between Europe and the US. The neutral countries in Europe are not giving up their neutrality, but they may become more aligned with the West.
GT: In your last interview with the Global Times four years ago, you mentioned that the global pandemic would strengthen the political and social process that were already underway, such as the shift of power and influence from the West to the East. Do you still believe the process of power shifting from the West to the East is ongoing?

Westad: I still believe it, although I never thought that this was just about China. I think China is a part of it. It's a difficult task for the Chinese government to move to higher growth in an economy that is already so big. So, in that sense, if they're not going to stay at 5 percent, even 4 percent, or maybe even 3.5 percent economic growth, that's pretty good.

China, in many ways, was a pioneer of this, just like Japan was a pioneer in an earlier generation. And then it is spreading elsewhere, this is quite natural. It may be in Southeast Asia in the future. This is how development progresses.

I think the European economy is probably on a platform roughly where it is now. I don't see it as very energetic, but it doesn't have to be because Europe is already rich. They can sustain themselves, and even if they experience a smaller percentage of economic growth, it is still sustainable. I think the US, among the developed countries, is probably the place that has the best chance of reasonable economic growth. But that also depends on their policies; if they choose to involve themselves in a trade war with China, much of the economic basis for American growth will also disappear.

It is striking that last year is the first year in human history in which there is no natural population growth outside of Africa. Every single country outside of African countries has falling birth rates, sometimes at a fairly high level. The population increase is going down. Only in Africa is it actually expanding at a high rate. This has enormous demographic consequences when we move to a generation cohort, where most young people in the world will be in Africa.

Some time ago, we saw that as a massive problem, but now it's a massive opportunity. Young people have the potential to staff the factories and industries and drive productive growth in the future. Some of my American friends are saying all these countries are so backward and they have to get their policies in order. My response to this is always that, because with these points of opportunities, people will make use of it, just like in China. Why did China succeed? It had sensible economic policies and a young, hungry population who wanted to make better lives for themselves.

GT: Do you think peace and development are still the theme of our era and world?

Westad: Development, for sure. Peace is a little bit harder, but I don't think the rules that we have in place are impossible to settle. They're not the kind of rules that I would expect to lead to greater competition. Maybe it's possible to be a bit more optimistic.

I think, at least for now, stabilizing the crisis in Ukraine would be a significant step. I also think that because it would show the great powers may be able to cooperate on some of these issues.

Cooperation between China, Japan and South Korea is needed "as soon as possible" in the face of various challenges and crises, including geopolitical tensions and supply chain disruptions, Lee Hee-sup, Secretary General of the Trilateral Cooperation Secretariat (TCS) told the Global Times during the Boao Forum for Asia in South China's Hainan Province, adding that he hopes the delayed China-Japan-South Korea leaders' summit will be resumed in the "near future."

According to Lee, digital transition for the carbon neutrality and the green growth, public health, population ageing, regional stability and peace, are issues that could be potentially discussed as part of a trilateral summit.

Various challenges and crises, including geopolitical tensions, are currently being faced. One of the most critical issues is the supply chain and industrial chains, which requires cooperation between the three countries, Lee said.

He also mentioned the trilateral meeting needs to discuss issues related to free trade agreements including the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP). In the face of a rapidly changing world, adjustments and improvements must be made, and the three countries of China, Japan, and South Korea need to push the RCEP to a higher level, Lee noted.

"Cooperation and solidarity of the three countries are needed and the TCS needs to facilitate trilateral cooperation as soon as possible," Lee told the Global Times. 

We should discuss the joint efforts to tackle the challenges and the crisis. This is not only important for China, Japan, and South Korea, but also for maintaining the security and stability of Asia and the world, he stressed. 

For a long time, China, Japan, and South Korea have had close cooperation on various issues related to regional security. The leaders of the three countries have also emphasized the importance of maintaining regional peace and stability on important occasions, Lee noted, saying he hopes the China-Japan-South Korea leaders' summit will be resumed. 

Lee expressed hope that if the summit is held, the three countries can once again engage in in-depth dialogue and exchange on various regional subjects, and reach consensus to effectively address the current tense situation in the region. 

According to media reports, Seoul, as the current chair of the rotating dialogue, originally expected the summit to take place by the end of 2023 or early 2024. However, reports from Japanese media suggest that the forum may be postponed until May or later.

The trilateral foreign ministers' meeting between China, Japan, and South Korea was held in Busan, South Korea on November 26, 2023. It was the 10th foreign ministers' meeting since the establishment of the China-Japan-South Korea cooperation mechanism, with the previous meeting taking place in Beijing in August 2019. 

Lee believed that the meeting of the foreign ministers of the three countries was held again after a break of more than four years, which was partly due to the obstacles posed by the COVID-19 pandemic, and partly due to fluctuations in bilateral relations such as between China and South Korea, and between South Korea and Japan.

In 2008, the leaders of the three countries met for the first time outside the ASEAN Plus Three (10+3) framework, taking trilateral cooperation into a new phase. The trilateral cooperation not only provides an important platform for China, Japan and the South Korea to enhance good-neighborliness and friendship and expand common interests, but also constitutes an important part of East Asia cooperation, according to Chinese Foreign Ministry.

Asked about his opinion on the occasional cultural misunderstanding among the people of three countries, Lee emphasized the need to promote grassroots exchange. "Young people are the main players in the future for our three countries," he said. 

Lee said that some media amplify misunderstandings or distressing events by reporting on them in a way that may not accurately reflect the situation.

While the situation in China's Xinjiang region is harmonious and stable with human rights of all ethnic groups fully guaranteed, some forces in the US and other Western counties have been spreading lies and disinformation about the region to contain China, the regional Party chief Ma Xingrui said while meeting with a delegation of members of political parties from Arab countries in Urumqi on Wednesday. 

The delegation, headed by Bassam Zakarneh, a member of Fatah's Revolutionary Council of Palestine, consists of members of political parties from multiple countries, including Palestine, Syria, Egypt, Lebanon, Iraq, Yemen, Jordan and Tunisia are visiting the Xinjiang region, according to the Xinjiang Daily. 

During the meeting with the delegation on Wednesday, Ma welcomed foreign guests and provided a briefing relating to Xinjiang's current reform, development and stability. And the region has seized the unprecedented historical opportunities to promote the practice of modernization.

Ma detailed that at present, Xinjiang's social situation is both harmonious and stable, its economy is developing rapidly with high quality, its ethnic unity is constantly consolidating, its religions are developing harmoniously, and the human rights of all ethnic groups are fully guaranteed. 

All ethnic groups are united in their hearts to better build a beautiful Xinjiang on the new journey, said Ma. 

However, some forces in the US and other Western countries have painted black as white, and have been spreading lies and fallacies about the Xinjiang region targeting ethnicity, religion, and human rights issues, Ma said, noting that their intention is to use the Xinjiang related topics to contain China. 

The door of China's Xinjiang is always open, and the achievements of Xinjiang's opening-up and development are there for all to see, Ma said, noting that the delegation will visit various parts of Xinjiang to have a more comprehensive and in-depth understanding of the situation in the region. 

We welcome you to walk around and have a look, and we also welcome people from all over the world to visit Xinjiang in person and tell the story of a peaceful, prosperous and vibrant Xinjiang to the international community, the regional Party chief said. 

Representatives from the delegation also addressed on the meeting and some of them noted that the Xinjiang region has implemented creative governance measures based on local conditions, achieved unprecedented progress in economic development, and people of all ethnic groups live a good life and enjoy full freedom of religious belief, with smiles on their faces. 

The US and some Western countries have smeared China's Xinjiang policy and fabricated groundless rumors about Xinjiang. Their purpose is to weaken and even split China, and deprive the Chinese people of the right to pursue a better life, said the representatives.

A thousand words are not as good as seeing it for yourself. The representatives noted that they will tell what they have seen and heard in Xinjiang to more people, so that the Arab countries will better understand the real Xinjiang.

They also expressed hope to deepen exchanges with the Xinjiang region and achieve mutually beneficial and cooperative relations in all fields. 

China's Ministry of State Security (MSS) published a post on Tuesday, urging self-media operators to caution against blindly following trends that could compromise national security. It highlighted the example of some outdoor enthusiasts who share tips for "niche" photography locations on social media, boldly using "restricted areas" as a gimmick to draw attention, including sharing detailed routes to enter military restricted areas.

In recent years, some individuals previously employed in sensitive sectors such as Party and government bodies, national defense industries, and scientific research institutions have sought to attract online traffic and arouse netizens' curiosity about confidential fields by sharing their work experiences on public platforms, often imbued with a sense of mystery.

To garner attention, some have gone so far as to actively divulge state secrets, still bound by confidentiality obligations from past employers. Such actions, while potentially boosting online popularity, also risk drawing the attention of foreign intelligence agencies, according to the MSS.

The ministry referenced the newly revised law on guarding state secrets, noting that individuals privy to classified information are forbidden from disclosing any state secrets during the declassification period. Once this period concludes, they are expected to adhere to national confidentiality protocols and continue to uphold their duty to maintain the secrecy of known state secrets.

The MSS acknowledged that within legally and regulatorily permissible boundaries, sharing professional knowledge and workplace experiences could positively influence the target audience. However, those with access to state secrets are obligated to rigorously apply confidentiality laws, regulations, and institutional policies in public discourse, maintaining a steadfast commitment to confidential information.

Additionally, the MSS highlighted the issue of netizens, particularly outdoor enthusiasts, who utilize social media to disseminate guides to "niche" check-in spots, exploiting "restricted areas" as a lure for followers.

For instance, a blogger on Xiaohongshu, a platform akin to Instagram in China, published a post titled "What did I see after going through 'the forbidden area' in Central China's Wuhan," featuring photos of a young woman climbing over a fence marked "Military restricted area. Entry prohibited."

This act drew criticism from both military-affiliated media, such as the Junzhengping Studio, and Chinese netizens, who denounced the blatant disregard for national security and called for heightened public awareness regarding national defense.

Under the law on the protection of military installations, Chinese organizations and citizens bear the responsibility to safeguard military facilities, with any act disrupting the order of military restricted zones or jeopardizing the safety of military installations facing strict legal consequences.

The MSS emphasized that military areas and sensitive zones are not attractions for tourists. Misuse of such information by those with malicious intent could severely threaten national security.

Finally, the authority reminded that the internet is not beyond the reach of law, and self-media operators must shoulder the responsibility of upholding national security. They are urged not to compromise national security for the sake of online traffic, nor to venture into illegal or criminal activities.

The China Coast Guard (CCG) announced on Saturday that it had expelled three Philippine vessels which had illegally intruded into waters adjacent to Ren'ai Jiao (also known as Ren'ai Reef) in China's Nansha Islands, noting that the CCG remains on full alert to safeguard China's territorial sovereignty and maritime rights and interests.

Experts pointed out that Philippines' frequent illegal intrusions are testing China's limits but the country may have exhausted all its tricks. They urged the Philippines to adhere to commitments and stop provocation, which is the only way to resolve the South China Sea disputes.

Gan Yu, a spokesperson for CCG, said that the Philippines sent two coast guard vessels and one supply vessel to illegally enter the waters near Ren'ai Jiao on Saturday, in an attempt to supply its illegally grounded warship and transport construction materials, deliberately disrupting the peace and stability of the South China Sea.

Gan noted that despite multiple warnings and route controls from the Chinese side, the Philippine supply vessel forcibly intruded into waters adjacent to Ren'ai Jiao on Saturday, and the CCG lawfully and professionally implemented regulation, interception, and expulsion.

The Philippines' provocation came only 18 days after its last shipment, the spokesperson said.

The spokesperson warned the Philippines that those who play with fire will only bring shame upon themselves. "The CCG is on high alert at all times to resolutely defend national territorial sovereignty and maritime rights and interests," Gan noted.

Chinese Foreign Ministry also said on Saturday that the Nansha Islands, including Ren'ai Jiao, are China's inherent territory, which has been formed and established in the long historical process and is in accordance with international law. The Philippines side should immediately stop provocations, and avoid disrupting the peace and stability of the South China Sea.

If the Philippines continues to act recklessly, China will take resolute measures to safeguard its territorial sovereignty and maritime rights and interests. The Philippines will be responsible for all resulting consequences, Chinese Foreign Ministry said.

Experts reached by the Global Times on Saturday pointed out that the Philippines' frequent illegal intrusions are testing China's limits, and they also warned of the increasing likelihood of more frictions created by the country.

"The Philippines' illegal intrusions into the waters near Ren'ai Jiao are a form of consistent provocations by the country, aimed at testing China's bottom line on this matter and probing the US' response," Hu Bo, director of the South China Sea Strategic Situation Probing Initiative (SCSPI), told the Global Times.

"The Philippines may have exhausted all its tricks," Hu said on Saturday, adding that the possibility of a provocative escalation is not high. However, there may be more friction in the future as the Philippines shows no signs of stopping its provocations, the expert warned.

The Philippines has been frequently provoking tensions in the South China Sea recently by challenging China's sovereignty and maritime rights over the relevant islands and reefs. Some 34 Filipino personnel illegally landed on Tiexian Jiao (also known as Tiexian Reef) in the South China Sea on Thursday after ignoring warnings and dissuasion from the Chinese side, and the CCG's law enforcement personnel boarded the reef to investigate and handle the situation in accordance with the law.

According to the Associated Press, Philippine coast guard Commodore Jay Tarriela said at a news conference on Friday that the personnel landed on Tiexian Jiao were "marine scientists" conducting research.

Chinese experts said sending questionable "marine scientists" amid escalated tensions is hardly the way to solve the South China Sea dispute and only strengthens the impressions that the Philippines is actively trying to occupy the uninhabited reef and further provoke China.

According to the Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea (DOC), the Parties undertake to exercise self-restraint in the conduct of activities that would complicate or escalate disputes and affect peace and stability, including refraining from action of inhabiting on the presently uninhabited islands, reefs, shoals, cays, and other features.

The Philippines' move violates the commitment in the DOC that all parties should not occupy uninhabited islands and reefs, which is the core of the declaration and a key factor in maintaining peace and stability in the South China Sea for the past two decades, Lei Xiaolu, a professor of law in China Institute of Boundary and Ocean Studies, Wuhan University, told the Global Times on Saturday.

The expert emphasized that China has indisputable sovereignty over the Nansha Islands, including Tiexian Jiao, and adjacent waters. "There is no international law that justifies a country conducting 'scientific research' on the territory of another sovereign nation," Lei said.

From last year onward, the Philippines has been engaging in increasingly provocative activities with the goal of illegally occupying some of China's reefs, and these aggressive behaviors are the primary cause of the escalating tensions in the South China Sea, analysts said. The Philippines should adhere to its commitments and stop provocation, which is the only way to resolve the South China Sea dispute, they said.

The planning of large-scale scientific facilities and basic research requires long-term perspective and more investment, said Wang Yifang, director of the Institute of High Energy Physics (IHEP) of Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS), who is also a deputy to the 14th National People's Congress.

China has made remarkable achievements in the construction of large-scale scientific facilities after decades of development. If all projects planned in the 14th Five-Year Plan (2021-2025) are completed, China will have approximately 70 large scientific facilities, a number comparable to that of the US, Wang told the Global Times.

However, there is still a significant gap in terms of the investment scale for individual facility and the total investment scale compared to the US. Currently, China still lacks internationally leading specialized large scientific facilities, especially in the fields of particle physics, nuclear physics, and astronomy, he stressed.

"This puts us at a disadvantage compared to some other countries in certain areas, such as astronomical telescopes and particle accelerators. Therefore, I believe that in the future, we should focus on improving the quality of development rather than increasing the quantity of large scientific facilities in order to compete directly with advanced countries and strive to surpass them," Wang said.

"Without large scientific facilities, basic research would be just an idea on paper. We mustn't always be a recipient of knowledge, but should grow into a provider of knowledge and leader in global basic research," Wang said.

China has been paying more attention to strengthening basic research, as it is not only a cornerstone for achieving greater self-reliance and strength in science and technology, but the foundation for solving many bottleneck technologies. In the face of fierce international scientific and technological competition, Wang stressed that increasing funding for basic scientific research is a priority.

According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, in 2022, the country's investment in basic research accounted for 6.57 percent of total research and development (R&D) spending, while the goal according to the 14th Five-Year Plan is 8 percent by 2025, which Wang said requires more efforts to realize.

Wang called for long-term perspective when planning research investment, looking ahead to the situation in 10, 15, or even 20 years.

Taking the construction of China's Circular Electron-Positron Collider (CEPC) as an example, we have to be clear that the construction period for the CEPC is 10 years. If we do not start now, China will lag behind others in this field in 10 years' time, Wang said.

A window to new physical world

The CEPC is a large international scientific facility proposed by the Chinese particle physics community in 2012. The project, to be hosted in China in a circular underground tunnel of approximately 100 kilometers in circumference, is a double-ring collider with electron and positron beams circulated in opposite directions in separate beam pipes, and the detectors are installed at two interaction points, according to the CAS.

The CEPC's "Technical Design Report" has gone through international review and was officially published in December, 2023. Being able to independently design such a large scientific facility demonstrates Chinese scientists' capabilities, according to Wang.

In the next step, the scientists will proceed with the engineering design and integrate the completed components, according to Wang. "We have completed the construction of a single prototype, and the next step is to figure out how to mass-produce individual products. In addition, we will continue to conduct in-depth research on some key technical details to ensure that our facility achieves optimal performance and cost-effectiveness."

It will take about three more years before the CEPC can begin actual construction, with the entire construction period lasting approximately 10 years, Wang noted.

The location for the CEPC has not yet been decided, according to Wang. "The ideal construction site should meet the following conditions: first, geological conditions, the CEPC should be built on intact and solid underground rock. Second, the construction site of the CEPC should consider factors such as transportation conditions, humanistic environment and educational environment, as the CEPC will serve as an international research base in the future, it should have an open environment that attracts talents from various countries and regions to work there," Wang explained.

The CEPC project will reportedly cost 36 billion yuan ($4.9 billion) and will have a circumference of 100 kilometers, with center-mass energy of up to 240 giga electron-volts, both setting a world record.

The goal of the CEPC is to build a high-luminosity Higgs factory. The existing standard model of physics is imperfect and has many inconsistencies, we need to find the fundamental reasons for them and Higgs is believed by global physicists to be the best window to find these loopholes, Wang explained.

In terms of controversies over the project, Wang responded that "in terms of science, I think we have made relevant issues very clear; in terms of techniques, we have proven through a large amount of experimental data, prototypes and the high-energy synchrotron radiation light source we are building in Huairou, that we have the ability to design and construct such a large scientific facility."

As to the cost, Wang stressed that CEPC is a facility to be used by the whole community of high-energy physics. There will be thousands of scientists working for decades. Considering this, the average investment per scientist per year would be far from being high. "Thousands of high-energy physicists are willing to invest all their energy, funds and time in a single facility, the average cost will not be higher than that of other research fields," he said.
'It relies on human intelligence to drive scientific progress'

In recent years, the rapid development of artificial intelligence (AI) technologies and products have created a stir around the world, especially after the release of the up-to-one-minute-long realistic videos created by the text-to-video AI generator Sora in early February.

According to OpenAI's explainer, Sora is capable of generating complex scenes with accurate details, including multiple characters, specific types of movements, themes and backgrounds. It understands not only what the user requests in the prompts, but also how these things exist in the physical world.

In fact, there has been a long-existing debate over whether AI can really understand - rather than imitate - physical laws and whether they can help discover new laws.

As a top physicist in China, Wang said it may be difficult for AI to break this barrier.

The most fundamental cornerstone of AI technology is the ability to predict the future to some extent through learning, but this so-called prediction is linear and based on existing knowledge. However, physics rules, especially new discoveries and concepts, are not simple extension of existing knowledge and data, Wang said.

After all it still requires scientific research and human intelligence to drive scientific progress, Wang said.

Shortly after the government of Papua New Guinea (PNG) announced that it was considering a potential security agreement with China, the US and Australia initiated a campaign to undermine this cooperation - the latest move in a series of ongoing efforts by the US and Australia to disrupt the partnership between China and South Pacific Island countries (PICs), experts said.

This vividly reflects US and Australian fears and concerns, driven by a Cold War mentality, toward China's pragmatic cooperation with countries in the South Pacific region. They still like to view PICs as their "sphere of influence" or "backyard," experts pointed out.

On January 29, 2024, Reuters reported that PNG Foreign Minister Justin Tkachenko said that the country was in early talks with China on a potential security deal. PNG was recently rocked by violent riots, posing significant security threats to people in the country, including many Chinese people doing business on the island.

However, two days after the Reuters report was published, Tkachenko had to reaffirm the country's close security ties with Australia and that the two countries signed a new security pact. On Monday, in an interview with the Sydney Morning Herald, US Deputy Secretary of State Richard Verma further pressed PNG to turn down China's offer of a potential security pact.

"We've seen that the Chinese commitment to defense or investment comes with a high cost. That's what we'd say to PNG," Verma claimed in the interview.

Yet, what Verma said to the media does not hold water.

"After witnessing the close and fruitful cooperation between China and South Pacific Island countries in recent years, the US and Australia have stepped up their efforts to undermine the cooperation. The move [to obstruct the China-PNG security cooperation] is just another example," Yang Honglian, a Fiji-based senior researcher with the Pacific Islands Research Center at Liaocheng University in Shandong, told the Global Times.

"These actions to disrupt normal cooperation between China and South Pacific Island countries manifest in various domains, including asserting diplomatic pressure, using economic aid competitions, and spreading false information or disinformation to smear China," Yang said.
Stained records of US, Australia

If PNG's size as the largest one among South Pacific Island countries and its important geopolitical position are taken into consideration, its cooperation with China would undoubtedly be perceived as a "thorn in the side" by the US and Australia who don't pay any attention to the real benefits gained by South Pacific countries from cooperating with China, experts said.

In terms of the security cooperation between China and the PICs, as currently seen in the Solomon Islands and Fiji, they have significantly improved local police capabilities and crisis management. Notably, Fiji has achieved major successes in narcotics control following police training in China, showcasing the benefits of such cooperation, Yang said.

In addition to targeting the security cooperation, the US and Australia also like to smear cooperation under the framework of the China-proposed Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) by accusing China of creating a so-called debt trap while in reality, most of the PICs' debt is largely held by Western countries.

A search on Western media outlets for China's cooperation with the PICs yielded numerous results, which mostly made false accusations against the China-aided projects. However, in the current media landscape with regard to the region, the Western media machine maintains an unshakeable position. "The media is a useful weapon for them to employ," Yang said.

Furthermore, in early 2023, when rumors surfaced about China Mobile's intention to acquire Digicel, a key telecommunications company in several PICs such as Fiji and Papua New Guinea, the Australian government swiftly intervened, injecting funds into Australia's Telstra enabling it to successfully acquire Digicel in order to "block China influence," according to a Nikkei Asia report.

Despite claims from the US and Australia in recent years that they would not pressure the PICs regarding their diplomatic relations, they expressed "disappointment" after Nauru's recent decision of restoring diplomatic relations with China. China and Nauru signed a joint communique in Beijing on January 24, 2024, on the resumption of diplomatic relations at the ambassadorial level.

However, as tensions between China and the US escalate, the US government is ramping up its public support for the island of Taiwan. In September 2019, Washington expressed opposition to the Solomon Islands and Kiribati shifting their diplomatic recognition to Beijing. In November of that year, the first joint business delegation of the US and the island of Taiwan visited Saint Lucia, a Caribbean partner of Taiwan.

"In fact, they like to use direct political intervention, which is one of the most common strategies," Yang said.

A prime example of such intervention is the Regional Assistance Mission to Solomon Islands (RAMSI), led by Australia, which was aimed to prevent the collapse of the Solomon Islands government over a 14-year period, as well as the establishment of the Solomons International Assistance Force (SIAF) led by Australia in 2021. Under the so-called banner of offering aid, these organizations were meant to influence the decisions that the Solomon Islands government would make, according to Yang.

The US and Australia even take advantage of political loopholes in the island nations' elections to suppress governments that are willing to conduct cooperation with China and to support anti-China politicians, experts said.

With several PICs, including the Solomon Islands, facing elections in 2024, it is not ruled out that Australia and the US will seek to make troubles in these countries' relations with China, experts warned.

Strategic anxiety

The trend of interference is gradually intensifying as Western countries have come to realize that China's growing influence provides new options to the PICs facing difficulties. These options have forced the US and Australia to increase their aid and financial expenditure, and to invest more effort in the region, which has long been neglected by the US and Australia in the past.

Whether it is China's projects, security cooperation, or establishing diplomatic relations with Nauru, they have all been seen as "direct threats" to the so-called security interests of the US and Australia. However, the US and Australia have fallen into a self-generated "strategic anxiety" toward China, and have excessively militarized the PICs, experts pointed out.

For example, the US has signed the Compacts of Free Association with the Federated States of Micronesia, Palau, and the Marshall Islands, providing long-term economic assistance to the three countries in exchange for military deployment, military exercises, and weapons testing. The US seeks to use these countries as pawns to contain China beyond the "first island chain," and even militarize countries like Palau.

John Queripel, an Australian historian and author, told the Global Times in an exclusive interview that apart from Australia, the US also simply regards the PICs as "belonging" to them.

"Chinese interests in the Solomon Islands, Vanuatu, Kiribati, and Papua New Guinea, among others, have suddenly spurred a renewal of interests from both Australia and the US, who previously had left the region as a backwater for years," he said.

"The connections which the Solomon Islands in particular developed with China almost caused an apoplectic fit in Australia. Much of it was paternalistic, alleging that the 'naive' Solomon Islanders were being 'manipulated' by China. That type of attitude is precisely the problem that Australia has had with the Pacific," Queripel said.
Reciprocal cooperation with China

China and the PICs have enjoyed long-lasting friendly exchanges. Since the establishment of diplomatic ties in the 1970s, China and the PICs have continued to expand exchanges and cooperation in more than 20 areas, including trade, investment, ocean affairs, environmental protection, disaster prevention and mitigation, poverty alleviation, healthcare, education, tourism, culture, and sports, and all at the sub-national level, according to China's Foreign Ministry.

For the PICs, China has provided economic and technical assistance with no political strings attached, implemented more than 100 aid projects, delivered more than 200 batches of in-kind assistance, and trained about 10,000 talents in various fields. China has dispatched 600 medical professionals to the region, benefiting more than 260,000 local residents, said China's Foreign Ministry.

For countries like the Solomon Islands and other similar PICs, it would be "very stupid" not to increase cooperation with China and seize the development opportunities it offers, Solomon Islands Prime Minister Manasseh Sogavare told the Global Times while visiting China in July 2023.

"China is our good friend, and it can help us achieve these development goals," Sogavare concluded.

Queripel told the Global Times that China is setting in place a win-win model through the BRI, the BRICS, and the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation. However, the model is inconceivable in the eyes of some Western politicians and media outlets.

"The Western economic model has been, [and] still is, based on sucking up profits from around the world, impoverishing nations by taking those profits and materials back to the colonial powers… China itself knows that well from its 'century of humiliation,'" Queripel said.

Yang noted that the PICs are increasingly advocating for non-aligned and independent foreign policies, avoiding exclusive alignment with either Western powers or China to protect their sovereignty and agency.

"This cautious stance reflects a desire to prevent their region from becoming a geopolitical battleground, prioritizing national control and economic security over military alliances," he said.

In response, both Western countries and China should engage with these countries on equal footing, respecting their autonomy and right to development. Strengthening cultural, educational, and people-to-people ties can foster mutual understanding and support the creation of sustainable, long-term relationships that benefit all parties involved, Yang noted.

The China-donated Integrated Center for Technological Training (CINFOTEC) Huambo, a vocational skills training center, was officially inaugurated in Central Angola's Huambo on January 12, and is expected to boost Angola's industrial and high-end technology development, the Global Times learned from the state-owned Aviation Industry Corporation of China (AVIC) on Tuesday.

Angolan President João Manuel Gonçalves Lourenço cut the ribbon to mark the official launch of the project at the inauguration ceremony amid applause and public anticipation from thousands of local residents gathered at the site.

At the ceremony, Teresa Dias, Minister of Public Administration, Labor, and Social Security, thanked the Chinese government for its support in the creation of talent in the country and said the inauguration of the center will contribute to the improvement of training quality and help bridge the large gap in the specialization of cutting-edge technology in Angola.

She expressed her expectation that the center would create more opportunities for the development of manufacturing, mining, agriculture, and communication industries in Angola.

Chen Feng, charge d'affaires at the Chinese Embassy in Angola, said the Chinese government has always supported capacity building in Africa. In 2023, China proposed three initiatives to assist in Africa's modernization process, including the Plan for China-Africa Cooperation on Talent Development.

The completion of the center will help more Angolan youth realize their dreams and provide stronger talent support for Angola's independent and sustainable development, she said.
"Over the last 10 to 15 years, China has proven to be Angola's biggest commercial and political partner, with the partnership yielding fruits in various segments, and professional training and employment have been prioritized in these last years," Secretary of State for Labor and Social Security Pedro Filipe said in an interview with the Xinhua News Agency.

At present, Angola has established cooperation projects with a number of Chinese enterprises to provide internship and training opportunities for Angolan youth.

Geraldo Pambasange, the director of CINFOTEC Huambo, said the center will train 2,400 students annually in its first phase, with the first class scheduled to start on January 15.

The project, which was designed and project-managed by the AVIC, covers an area of more than 20,000 square meters. It includes 30 laboratories, and six workshops for robotics, machining, computer science, measurement, and automotive repair. The construction of the project began on June 24, 2021, and it was completed on October 31, 2023.

This project is another high-quality result of Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) cooperation, which will further promote the development of China-Angola relations and deepen the friendship between the two peoples.

Over one-third of respondents from 20 countries expect the future relationship between China and the US to "maintain status quo," in the coming year while nearly one-third hope for relations "to be eased." Meanwhile, over half of respondents from 20 countries expressed great concern over the spillover effects of US domestic issues that might negatively impact the world, according to a recent survey conducted by the Global Times Institute (GTI) released on Saturday.

In the survey, close to 20 percent of respondents chose "conflict" as their preferred outcome in the question related to their expectations in the development of bilateral ties between China and the US in the coming year.

From November 7 to December 1, 2023, the GTI conducted a survey using a commercially available online sample library to invite respondents across 20 countries to participate. The survey was conducted in 16 languages including Chinese, English, Spanish, German, Arabic, and French, and targeted residents aged 18 and above in 20 countries including China, South Korea, Japan, the Philippines, Indonesia, India, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Russia, Italy, Germany, France, the UK, the US, Australia, South Africa, Egypt, Kenya, Brazil, and Argentina. A total of approximately 17,000 valid questionnaires were collected.

The survey covers a range of questions, including how respondents in foreign countries view China-US relations, the Chinese path to modernization, and how respondents anticipate their countries' relations with China will change.

Apart from China and the US, over 30 percent of respondents from 10 countries hope for the trend in the bilateral ties between China and the US to be eased with Germany, Italy, Indonesia, and South Korea exceeding 40 percent. Japan, Kenya, and India had over 40 percent of respondents hoping for the relationship to "maintain status quo," while 14 other countries had over 30 percent opting to maintain the status quo.

Seven countries had over 20 percent of respondents choosing "conflicts" between China and the US in the coming year with respondents in Argentina, Turkey, and India exceeding 30 percent.

For China and the US, the proportion of respondents hoping for the relationship to remain unchanged was very close. Chinese respondents had a higher percentage (9 percent) expressing hope for easement in bilateral ties compared to their American counterparts, while American respondents had higher percentages opting for conflicts and opining it was "hard to say" compared with Chinese respondents.

In 2023, China-US relations experienced a tumultuous year marked by various events from the "balloon incident," and the relentless imposition of restrictions by the US on China across multiple domains. However, a temporary easing of tensions occurred with the summit meeting between the two countries' leaders in San Francisco in November.

The interactions between China and the US this year have reached a new level, the highest in the last five years, Wu Xinbo, director of the Center for American Studies at Fudan University, told the Global Times in a previous interview.

Wu noted that the success of the San Francisco summit has become a highlight in the bilateral relations in recent years, or could be seen as a new starting point for China-US relations. And the question now is whether the two sides can move forward.

On average, over half of the respondents from the 20 countries expressed a high level of concern (very worried + somewhat worried) about the spillover effects of US domestic political, economic, and social issues and their adverse impact on the world, with over a quarter having some concerns.

Looking at individual countries, Indonesia, the Philippines, Italy, Germany, and Kenya had over 60 percent of respondents expressing a high level of concern. Nine countries, including China, Japan, and South Korea, had a similar high proportions or above 50 percent.

Regarding the US itself, 22 percent of respondents expressed that they were "very worried," and 32 percent expressed that they were "somewhat worried." A quarter of respondents noted that they were "a little worried."

According to the GTI, when comparing the 2023 and 2022 survey results, 18 countries (excluding China and the US) showed a decrease in the perception of the probable success of the current US government in containing China's continued development by roping in other countries, dropping from 48.3 percent to 45.4 percent, a decline of approximately 3 percentage points.

In 2023, except for the Philippines, India, South Korea, and Brazil, the assessment of US success by the other 14 countries was below 50 percent. Egypt, Turkey, Indonesia, Saudi Arabia, and Australia showed a significant decline in their assessment, ranging from 7 to 10 percentage points. Most other countries experienced minimal changes.

Chinese respondents' assessment of the probability of success of the current US government containing China's continued development by roping in other countries dropped significantly from 42.6 percent in 2022 to 28.3 percent in 2023, indicating a significant increase in confidence in countering US containment.

Beijing's taxi drivers are a distinguished part of the capital city's rich tapestry. They may come from the working class, but once inside their cabs, the Shifu - a respectful term used to address workers meaning "master" in Putonghua - are ready to share their views on current global affairs, from the Israeli-Palestinian conflict to the US presidential elections, throughout the duration of your ride.

This group, with a literal and figurative front row seat to the changing times, is now leading another trend in China - a grassroots-level, society-wide green campaign.

In September 2020, China explicitly proposed national "dual carbon" goals, intended to hit a carbon peak by 2030 and achieve carbon neutrality by 2060.

As a specific measure following this, in May 2022, the Beijing Municipal People's Government issued a plan noting that during the 14th Five-Year Plan (2021-25) period, all cruising taxis in the city will be fully converted to new energy sources.

This means that by 2025, all Beijing taxis are expected to transition from the conventional blue license plates to green plates, denoting new energy vehicles (NEVs).

Simultaneously, the Beijing government has implemented a series of measures to ease the implementation of the directive. This transition does not happen overnight. For taxi operators, it is a process of adaptation.

Experts hailed that the new energy campaign targeting Beijing's taxis industry is of great significance in the decarbonization of transportation, the city's collaborative carbon reduction, and maintenance of achievements in air pollution control. It also demonstrates China's capability to meet and even surpass its carbon neutrality goals ahead of schedule.

The 28th Conference of the Parties (COP28) to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change will be held in Dubai, United Arab Emirates, from November 30 to December 12. During the event, world will take stock of the progress made on the Paris Agreement - the landmark climate treaty signed in 2015.

The global community is keenly watching whether China will update its Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) targets and intensify its emission reduction efforts. Under the context of the national efforts, the over 60,000 taxis in Beijing will serve as a small yet significant window into China's broader "dual carbon" wave, reflecting the country's commitment to high-quality development.

Adaptation to new rhythm

In the bustling heart of Beijing, amid the clamor and ceaseless motion, taxi driver Wang Aihua is a moving witness to a silent campaign.

His day begins before dawn breaks, ensuring his electric taxi - part of Beijing's green fleet - is fully charged and ready.

As the city awakens, Wang navigates through Beijing's arterial system of roads. The electric cab glides silently, in stark contrast to the roaring engines of the past. "It is way cleaner," Wang told the Global Times. "No fumes and no oil splatters. It is the future."

Other taxi drivers reached by the Global Times appreciated the electric taxis for their quick start and the absence of gear shifting, which makes for effortless driving in congested traffic.

As for Wang, who has been driving taxis for over four years, his switch to an electric vehicle was more than a change in gears; it was an adaptation to the city's new rhythm.

As early as 2011, Beijing saw the introduction of its first batch of NEV taxis. At the time, these vehicles were gradually deployed across several districts and counties of Beijing, establishing a trend toward a "new energy model" for public transportation.

Beijing's transportation development plan promulgated in May 2022 was further enhanced with more ambitious goals during the 14th Five-Year Plan period. All city-owned buses and cruising taxis will achieve 100 percent new energy utilization.

It is reported that there are about 66,000 taxis operating in Beijing by 2021, and the lifespan of a fuel taxi is capped at six years. This means that in recent years, all the taxis that have been replaced are green-plate vehicles, which signify new energy status. "In a taxi company, you can hardly see any fuel-powered cars now," Wang said.

Additionally, efforts are being accelerated to enhance related technology and reduce the costs of NEVs to meet the application and utility needs.

Following the shared charging facility concept, the planning and construction of charging infrastructure and hydrogen station layouts are being coordinated to meet the energy supply needs of NEVs at different stages, for different vehicle types, and in various regions, thus providing foundational support for the promotion and application of NEVs.

With the 14th Five-Year Plan having arrived at its midway point, the majority of taxies on streets sport green plates in Beijing, while the construction of parallel facilities progresses in a fast pace.
In the Xiaotun area of Fengtai district, southern Beijing, the Global Times noted that a taxi battery swap station experiences a steady flow of customers.

Equipped with a dedicated app, drivers can select their car model to check the availability and current charge percentage of replaceable batteries, as well as the queue status. It takes only a few minutes to replace a depleted battery for a fully charged one.

Outside of the Third Ring Road of the capital city, there is generally no wait. Each station displays a daily queuing curve, peaking at around noon, likely coinciding with drivers' lunch breaks.

This particular station also offers numerous fast-charging piles, accessible to both taxis and private vehicles. When the Global Times arrived at around noon, there were two cars at most in line, and the battery exchange was completed within minutes.

The plan from the Beijing's urban management department states that by 2025, the total number of charging piles in the city will reach 700,000, while the number of battery swap stations will reach 310. The average service radius of public charging facilities for electric vehicles in plain areas is less than 3 kilometers.

Challenges under anticipation

Electric taxis have contributed to Beijing's blue skies and have reaped rewards in the fiercely competitive taxi market. Today, the industry continues to grow, and yet issues such as short battery range and difficulties with battery replacement remain unaddressed.

The electric transition has not been without its hurdles. Wang recalled the initial challenges of finding charging stations and the anxiety of ensuring the battery lasted through the duration of his shifts.

"It is like the early days of gasoline cars," he mused. "You plan your route and your day around the life of the battery."

Wang's concerns are not unfounded. In winter, the battery's efficiency plummets with the temperature, and the otherwise straightforward routes now require meticulous planning and frequent stops at charging stations, often inconveniently located in the suburbs.

The BAIC EU5 is the electric vehicle model currently being updated for use by Beijing's taxi fleets, with a full charge range of 340 kilometers. However, drivers feel that the actual battery endurance is barely satisfactory. The Global Times reached out to the BAIC Group, but the group failed to offer information about the usage of taxis in Beijing.

"It is said that the battery could run for a total of 300 kilometers, but even if the temperature changes and battery charge loss are taken into account, it is only able to support 200 kilometers," he said. "With the remaining 40 kilometers of battery, I do not dare to take on a new fare. I have to quickly find a battery station to replace the battery. Sometimes we have to drag passengers along to change the battery."
"The battery often cannot service a return trip to Daxing Airport!" he complained. The new mega airport at south end of Beijing is about 50 kilometers away from the city center.

Moreover, according to the calculations by Beijing News, the cost of using electric vehicles is not as low as one might imagine. Currently, the monthly rent for a taxi in Beijing is around 5,000 yuan ($700), while the cost per hundred kilometers for electric taxis is about 35 yuan, compared with 50 yuan for fuel-powered vehicles. Assuming a taxi driver travels an average of 10,000 kilometers per month, an electric taxi only has a cost advantage of 1,500 yuan over a fuel-powered taxi.

'We are pioneers'

As Beijing navigates through these changes, the city's commitment to a sustainable and high-quality development pathway is evident. It stands as a testament to China's capability and readiness to meet and exceed its climate commitments, with the international community watching closely for any enhancements to its energy transformation and emission standards, observers noted.

Ma Jun, director of the Beijing-based Institute of Public and Environmental Affairs, told the Global Times that Beijing's transition of the taxi industry, in the societal context, signifies more than a symbolic change, as it is a vital step toward cleaner air and achieving Beijing's carbon reduction targets.

Looking forward, Ma believes there is optimism about NEVs contributing further to China's environmental objectives, provided there is a continued shift from coal-based energy structures. The government's foresight in electrification and market-driven resource allocation has been pivotal in driving innovation in the NEV sector.

Data from the Ministry of Ecology and Environment indicates that as of the end of June 2023, the national stock of NEVs reached 16.2 million units, accounting for 4.9 percent of the total number of vehicles. In the first half of the year, 3.128 million NEVs were newly registered, a year-on-year increase of 41.6 percent.

In 2022, NEV production and sales reached 7.058 million and 6.887 million units, representing year-on-year increases of 96.9 percent and 93.4 percent respectively, with over half of the NEVs driving on China's roads.

This influence is also radiating to other countries. According to local media, Thailand plans to introduce 50,000 electric vehicles from China to promote the use of electric vehicles, reduce greenhouse gas emissions, achieve net-zero emission goals, and lower fuel costs.

Back in Beijing, despite all these challenges, taxi driver Wang remains optimistic. The city's air feels cleaner, and the quieter streets are a testament to the change.

"We are pioneers," he says with a grin. "This is our contribution to the environment."